Global Risks Report 2

1. Fragile Societies under Pressure.

- Why is the social fragility rising socio-economic inequality within countries?

- What are the effects associated with climate change?

“Among the members of OECD, the average income of the richest 10% has now grown to about nine times that of the poorest 10%”

“The spread of connectivity enables protest movements to mount more quickly, increasing the risk of unrest and violence that could easily spill over from individual countries to affect the global economy”

“States will need to mitigate this risk through policies to make growth more inclusive: providing public goods and services such as social protection, hospitals, schools, transport and telecommunications infrastructure”

2. Growing Worries about Conflict.

- What is the most likely high-impact risk over the next 10 years or indeed perhaps even sooner?

- How the link between many forms of global crime and corruption and their impact on global security, extremism, terrorism, and fragile grown up?

“Disillusion about globalization is leading to more self-interested foreign policies in combination with a rise in national sentiment fuelled in part by the social pressures described above.”

“Over past years, the links between many forms of global crime and corruption and their impact on global security, extremism, terrorism and fragile states have only grown stronger, and it is critical to acknowledge and address them through more effective policies that curb illegal financial flows, foster transparent governance and build capacity around anti-crime efforts at the national and local levels.”

3. Economic Risks: Out of the Spotlight.

- How the global economy recently grows up?

- Why in many countries public debt levels are still high? And related to what?

“Since the financial crisis, the use of expansionary monetary policy – such as quantitative easing and zero interest rates – has not had the expected impact of significantly increasing credit availability in the real economy, instead leading to a reflation of asset prices”

“The risks of a failure of a major financial mechanism or institution and fiscal crises are perceived as equally impactful and likely as in last year’s report ,yet other risks, such as water crises, interstate conflict and the failure of climate-change adaptation, have taken center stage.

4. Environment – High Concern, Little Progress.

- Over the past decade, how is the awareness regarding the threats posed by environmental change to social, political, and economic security?

- Did the US National Intelligence Council identified the nexus of food, water, energy and climate change as one of four overarching mega trends?

“Agriculture already accounts for on average 70% of total water consumption and, according to the World Bank, food production will need to increase by 50% by 2030 as the population grows and dietary habits change”

“ Strong evidence of the effects of climate change is already apparent, in terms of sea level rise, shrinking glaciers, warmer oceans and the increasing frequency of weather extremes.”

5. Technological Risks: Back to the Future

- What is the thing lead to the risk of large-scale cyber attacks continue to think above average on both dimensions of impact and likelihood?

- What are the effects of the complexity of addressing risks?

“While this will deliver innovation, the prospect of many large players across multiple industries being forced to change so radically at the same time raises potential systemic risks such as large-scale disruption in labor markets and volatility in financial markets”

6. Preparedness at the Regional Level Is Different
- Why Europe population involuntary migration and profound social instability?
- How Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa profound social instability?
- How East Asia and the Pacific are perceived as least prepared for interstate conflict and failure of urban planning?
- How failure of urban planning affect to the first three risks in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia?
“North America identifies failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure, large-scale cyber attacks and failure of climate-change adaptation as the three risks for which it is least prepared. Major breakdowns of infrastructure in the wake of Super storm Sandy and the sheer number of cyber attacks illustrate the low level of preparedness.”
“Sub-Saharan Africa is considered least prepared for infectious diseases and unemployment. Both are of key importance given recent events and the fact that strong population growth is expected to exacerbate unemployment in the coming years, despite expected economic growth”